Finally, a topic near and dear to my hear, risk-limiting election audits (RLAs)! RLAs are an important part of verifying election results and protecting democratic integrity. In essence, an RLA is a statistical test that verifies election results. The primary goal of election audits is to build public trust in the electoral process by providing accountability. Risk-limiting election audits are a specific type of election audit that focuses on minimizing the risk of certifying incorrect election outcomes. Unlike traditional audits, which have fixed sample sizes, RLAs use statistics(a heck of a lot of math!)to determine the appropriate sample size based on the margin of victory and other factors.
A simple example of an RLA is known as BRAVO, which uses Wald’s sequential probability ratio test to increase or decrease the risk limit based on the ballot drawn by a factor calibrated based on the margin. More advanced RLAs use super martingales, which are in essence a more complex version of the SPRT used in BRAVO. Some of the work I’ve been working on personally uses ALPHA, a super martingale-based RLA to audit multiple elections at the same time. Hopefully, you see that paper out soon!
RLAs play a crucial role in the electoral process for several reasons: RLAs provide voters with greater confidence that the election results are accurate and reliable, which is essential for a healthy democracy. In addition, The possibility of an RLA also serves as a deterrent to potential election fraud or irregularities as bad-actors run the risk of their bad intentions being flagged by the audit. RLAs are designed to identify errors or discrepancies in the reported election results. These errors can arise from a variety of sources, including machine malfunctions, data entry mistakes, or even deliberate tampering. However, some ballot tampering mechanisms that take place before counting the original stack can unfortunately violate the RLA.
In conclusion, risk-limiting election audits are a crucial tool for ensuring the accuracy and integrity of election results. They offer a statistically sound and adaptable approach to verifying election outcomes, which is especially important in an era of increasing concerns about election security and transparency. By embracing RLAs and addressing the associated challenges, we can strengthen the foundations of democracy and bolster public trust in the electoral process. These audits are a testament to the ongoing commitment to fair and reliable elections in democratic societies worldwide.